Recapping what was Supposed to be a Busy Week in Washington
In classic D.C. fashion, an auspicious series of events turned into (at least for now) a whole lot of nothing.
This article was originally going to highlight the success of a complicated legislative process, but I guess that will have to wait!
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had originally planned to bring the bipartisan infrastructure package to the House floor by Thursday, September 30th, but ultimately pulled the bill because she didn’t have the votes to pass it.
But while Congress failed to pass anything this week, there are still a number of important storylines that emerged from the chaos.
The Basics:
The majority of President Biden’s agenda has been split into 2 bills
The 1st bill is a small, bipartisan infrastructure package (BIF) that focuses on generic infrastructure such as roads, bridges etc, with very limited climate provisions. This was hammered out by 5 Senators from each party, and has already passed 69-30 in the Senate, with 19 Republicans joining all Democrats in voting yes.
The 2nd bill is a larger, reconciliation package which includes a multitude of fairly moderate proposals such as paid family leave, child care programs, and free community college. This bill has no Republican support, and Democrats have been negotiating among themselves on this one.
The 1st bill will cost about $1 trillion, the 2nd is valued at closer to $3.5 trillion as it currently stands.
Senator Bernie Sanders ran on a $10 trillion agenda, while President Biden originally proposed around $6 trillion.
Senator Joe Manchin, 1 of 2 Democratic Senators currently holding up the reconciliation package, had proposed $4 trillion in infrastructure spending just last year, but now says $3.5 trillion is too high.
Where we Currently Stand:
Back in July, the Senate passed a resolution (not a bill, essentially just a written agreement) for a $3.5 trillion budget. The Senate passed the bipartisan infrastructure bill on August 10th, and it is still sitting on Nancy Pelosi’s desk. So why are things not continuing to progress? Well, simply put, there are bad faith actors involved in these negotiations. When the BIF was passed, it was agreed upon at the time that the reconciliation bill would also be brought to a vote at a later date. Now, so-called Democratic “moderates” are attempting to sink the larger bill while passing only the BIF. I put the word moderates in quotations because these members of Congress are actually wildly out of step with the majority of Americans. A Quinnipiac poll on August 2nd showed 62% of Americans supporting the reconciliation package, compared to just 32% opposed. Navigator Research poll from September 21st- 66% approve, just 24% oppose, including support from 61% of Independents and 39% of Republicans. The results are similar in every other poll that you can find.
Progressives in Congress have been criticized heavily since the beginning of the Biden era for not using their leverage to get what they want, and to this point I think that has been valid. But they have been able to flex their muscle when it comes to this reconciliation bill, to the point where the narrative has actually begun to shift from “The Democratic Party vs a few progressives” to “The progressives and the majority of the Party vs a few defecting moderates”. This may not seem like an important change, but I believe it’s critical for Americans to understand who is preventing them from receiving these benefits. The media seems to agree with me, as they have been working overtime to try and defend Manchin, Sinema and moderate Dems in the House like Josh Gottheimer (NJ-05). I would highly suggest checking out this absurd puff piece on Kyrsten Sinema from Axios.
With progressives holding the line and threatening to vote no on the BIF unless both bills pass, and moderates still refusing to back the larger bill, it’s difficult to predict what will ultimately happen, but I’m going to give it my best shot. With nearly 60 members of the House and 11 Senators, progressives have a very solid block that appears to have the upper hand. There is certainly a real chance that nothing passes at all, if the 2 sides can’t eventually work out a deal, but with public opinion and now, the narrative on the progressives side, I’m actually cautiously optimistic that they will be able to get this done. It helps that they’ve actually been willing to negotiate in good faith, as $3.5 trillion is already a big compromise.
My best guess on how this all works out in the end is that the BIF will pass the House once progressives make 1 more public concession on the reconciliation package. This could come in a number of different ways. They could lower the dollar amount again, to somewhere in the $2.5 trillion range, which would be the halfway mark between the current proposal and Manchin’s preferred $1.5 trillion. Another potential option is to keep the dollar amount the same, but add or subtract a specific provision that satisfies the moderates. One idea that Manchin has floated before is the addition of the controversial Hyde amendment, which bars the use of federal funds for abortion except in very specific cases. President Biden ran on repealing the Hyde amendment, but if Manchin would be willing to support the full $3.5 trillion in exchange for Hyde, it would at least have to be considered by progressives. Sinema is the real wild card here, as she has not offered any specifics of what she does or does not want in the bill. Most politicians (including Manchin) are perpetually concerned about being re-elected, but Sinema seems to be thinking ahead to her career post-Congress. She has not been shy about her corruption, attending fundraisers with corporate lobbyists who are opposed to the reconciliation bill. If Sinema truly doesn’t care about being re-elected, there may not be anything that Biden or progressives or anybody can offer her.
What really should be asked of Manchin, Sinema and all Republicans is what specifically would you cut from the bill? There are many components, and each one is tremendously popular. Here’s the complete list:
Extending the temporary child tax credits from the American Rescue Plan
Mandated paid family leave
Universal Pre-K
Free Community College for anyone who qualifies
Medicare expansion to include dental, hearing and vision
Climate change provisions
Additional child care programs
Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with drug companies
None of these are radical proposals, in fact they’re mostly things that every other developed Western country already has. This is why it’s so important to ask that question, because they really don’t want to answer it.
Other Storylines to keep an Eye on
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the U.S. government will run out of money by October 18th, creating the need to raise the debt ceiling once again.
Mitch McConnell and Republicans seem unwilling to help Democrats do this, and it may result in another recession.
Note: Raising the debt ceiling is necessary to pay for what we’ve already allocated, and does not include any new spending. Hence why Republicans are partially culpable here, as President Trump added significantly to the national debt during his term.
On Thursday the House and Senate passed, and President Biden signed a short-term funding bill to prevent the government from shutting down. This is separate from the debt ceiling negotiations, but was just as important to get done.
Democratic Senator Ed Markey (MA) introduced a bill called “The Juidiciary Act” to expand the Supreme Court by 4 seats. I don’t necessarily think the principle of this action is wrong, but it’s sad to see the Justice system become so nakedly partisan.
P.S. Hold your elected officials accountable! If your Senator or Representative is doing the bidding of their donors instead of their constituents, give them a call, it absolutely freaks them out.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider subscribing to this newsletter, and sharing it with your friends and family:
You can also follow me on Twitter: