Best Practices for Judging the actions of Politicians
It can be difficult to determine the sincerity of public officials, so here's a guide to better understand their motivations
Have you ever seen a politician support something, but you’re not sure if their heart is really behind it?
If the answer is yes, stick around for the remainder of the article. Politicians can be difficult to read, and while I’m sure they will still make some decisions that won’t make sense after reading this breakdown, I think there are some ways to limit the confusion.
Example: VP (at the time Senator) Kamala Harris comes out in support of Medicare for All (M4A), cosponsors the Senate bill put forward by Bernie Sanders, and raises her hand in support of eliminating private insurance at a presidential debate. After later realizing that the issue didn’t play as well with the suburban base she was trying to lock down, she quickly reversed course. This example is fairly transparent due to a number of factors, but let’s break it down.
So, as it’s smart to generally be skeptical of anything your government does, the first question you should be asking is--
Does the bill actually have a chance of passing?
In this particular example, the answer was clearly no. At the time Republicans had control of the Senate, and even now with a slim Democratic majority in the chamber, there has been essentially zero chatter about the policy or the bill itself. Harris knew that when she cosponsored that bill, there was no chance for it to pass. Some may believe that she supported the bill in spite of that fact, but the truth is actually the opposite. Cynical politicians routinely use this strategy to feign support for a bill that is tremendously popular (typically with their own voters) without actually having to come through for people. Sticking with the same example of M4A for simplicity’s sake- the same bill that is currently up in the House has 117 Democratic cosponsors. 117. Does anybody seriously believe that there are 117 House Democrats that would wholeheartedly support the bill if it had a chance to actually become law? Unfortunately, that would be a fantasy.
Next Question-
Does the politician in question have future ambitions/is up for re-election soon?
For our example in question, I think the answer to this question is as clear as can be. Senator Harris quickly elevated herself up to the Vice President’s office, even after a poor primary campaign of her own where she dropped out before the first state (Iowa) and was often polling in 5th place in her own home state of California. As for the question more broadly, all House members must undergo a new re-election campaign every 2 years to remain in office, so that is something that’s always in the back of their minds. But as most incumbents generally don’t have to worry too much about being re-elected to their current office, with over 80% of incumbents winning in every congressional cycle since data began being reliably gathered, this question applies much more to those with further ambitions for offices above where they currently work. Harris moving up from Senator to VP is a prime example of that. Other cosponsors of the Medicare for All bill include Senators Cory Booker (NJ), Kirsten Gillebrand and Amy Klobuchar (MN), all who ran for President, and none who actually support the policy.
This same rule applies at every level of politics. Generally speaking, if you get into a position where you’re a young, charismatic politician, you’re going to want to move up the chain at some point. This could be making the jump from the House to the Senate, from state government to federal, or maybe just city council to mayor. What’s the best way to do this? Find a particular policy or two that energize the political base that you’re working to secure. Theoretically this concept would be fine politics, but if the politician isn’t being sincere in their support of the policy, then their voters are likely being duped.
Some exceptions to incumbents lack of worries about being re-elected:
If you’re in a swing district
If you have recently defeated an entrenched incumbent
If you’re facing a primary challenge
If you’re dramatically out of step with the party
If you represent a swing area, particularly if you’re in the House, you’re actually very likely to get knocked out of your seat. Members who serve for multiple terms in swing districts are usually either very talented politicians, or have a powerful political machine backing them. Going back to the original example with M4A for a moment, this is once again a powerful motivator for these candidates. Some centrist Democrats tried to vehemently oppose the policy in 2020, and many of them lost their races, but every Democrat in a swing district who also cosponsored that bill won re-election. It’s not clear that this was the only factor in those races, but it almost certainly played some role.
Taking on and defeating an incumbent is a very difficult thing to do, and I think most who accomplish this feat should be applauded. On the other hand though, it often makes those in the party establishment, especially in leadership, quite upset. The DNC has gone so far as to blacklist contractors who work with primary opponents to incumbents.
Facing a primary challenge can actually force a politician in one direction or another. For example, it has become clear that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (NY) is feeling the heat from his left flank, as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has not ruled out a primary race against him in 2022. Schumer is not naturally very progressive, but has come out in support of things like federal legalization of marijuana, as well as a $15 minimum wage. These likely wouldn’t have been positions he would have taken without that added pressure from the threat of a primary.
This last bullet point has been focused down much more narrowly in recent years, as most rank and file members of the party have become much more hardline partisan than in decades past. But for people like Senator Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), being dramatically out of step with the electorate of your own party likely has a political price to pay eventually. Voters are already looking for a primary opponent to Sinema and I wouldn’t be surprised if she lost. I covered in my last article a little bit about just how out of step she is with voters in AZ, particularly on the minimum wage and Senate filibuster.
In general, follow the money!
The single best way to learn about a politician’s views is to review their campaign finance documents. With loose laws and restrictions on campaign donations, every special interest in Washington wants a piece of the pie. Some industries are more nefarious and morally repulsive than others but money has an impact on nearly every issue. Returning to our original example, Kamala Harris was accepting money from Pharmaceutical executives while supposedly supporting Medicare for All, giving us yet another indicator on what her true position on the issue is.
I should also add that the money is not *always* an issue of corruption, although that is the norm these days. There are also sometimes examples of industries that are specific to a politician’s district. Sometimes a bill would bring a lot of economic opportunity to the district, which can sometimes make the vote a difficult choice, particularly if the politician doesn’t believe in the bill as a whole.
Support is good one way or another, but remember who your genuine friends are
I have long argued that getting politicians to support legislation based on political advantages is not only good, it’s arguably the most effective way to push them in the correct direction. Politicians often need some pressure to make the right decisions anyway, and regardless of motivation, it’s good to get support wherever you can get it. However, it’s important to remember who is a real ally in your fight, and who is simply tagging along for the political benefit. This is especially important come election time, as you get a chance to reward those who are working for policies that the district supports, and to remove those who are merely posers, standing in the way of actual progress.
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